10105 - Hydrate volume calculation re: the Greek EEZ, and its geo-economic importance
A. Foskolos, N. Lygeros
Translated from the Greek by Athena Kehagias
I. Calculation of hydrate deposits
Based on Figure 1, if we assume, as a first approximation of course, that the length of the hydrate field is 1000km and its width within the Greek EEZ is 200km, then the area covered by the hydrates is 200000 km2.
If yet again, based on Figure 1, we assume that the average thickness of the hydrates is 150 meters, then, the volume of the hydrates, plus the concomitant sludge masses, are 30000km3. The 30000km3 are equivalent to 30x1012m3 or 30 trillion m3. This is the volume of the solidified methane, therefore of the hydrate and the concomitant sludge. The net hydrate totals to 1.1% of the volume, therefore, 0.3 trillion m3. The 0.3m3 of hydrate x 167m3 of natural gas / hydrate cubic meter, are equivalent to 50.1 trillion m3 of natural gas. With better calculations in respect to the thickness of the hydrates, based always on Figure 1, but with new researches, we could obtain more accurate estimates.
Bare in mind that these estimates relate to hydrates above the seabed. But we also have hydrates beneath the seabed. Only that in this case other calculations are needed .
II. Economic benefits based on the existence of natural gas
Because the 1000 cubic feet correspond with 1Gj , which we estimate that by 2030 will be worth $10 / Gj, the value of the deposit of hydrates is estimated at 50 trillion m3 of natural gas x 35.315 cubic feet / m3 of natural gas = 1765.75 Trillion Cubic feet x $ 10/1000 cubic ft = $ 17, 65 trillion.
Greece will receive on average, the 10% for the 100 years of utilization, ie, $1,765 Trillion in 100 years. We estimate that the tax for the first 33 years will be 0%, over the following 33 years 10%, and over the last 33 years at 20%, as the lifespan of the deposit is 100 years.
A rough estimate is that,every year we will export 500 billion m3 of natural gas, primarily to Europe. If we export less, then the duration of the utilization will be greater, with more benefits to the Greek economy.
Of course, there will be a need to build at least six gas distribution pipelines, from Crete towards Europe, without forgetting, that there will be a need for that many more, in order to trasnport Israel’s shale gas to Europe.
So, in addition to the economic prosperity which Greece acquires, we also gain an enormous geopolitical power over the next 100-130 years, due to the exploitation of hydrates. But in order for all these to take place, we need to take the first step, as the big pathway begins with it.
And this first step begins with the declaration of the Greek EEZ. In order to continue intensively with the seismic surveys in our EEZ.